Infogap theory deals with epistemic uncertainty limitations on what we do know and what we can know. If this is your first visit to my site take note that i launched this campaign at the end of 2006. Oxford martin visiting fellow professor yakov benhaim introduces infogap theory, a method for supporting modelbased decisions under severe uncertainty. Informationgap decision theory presents a distinctive new theory of decisionmaking under severe uncertainty. Request pdf infogap decision theory everyone makes decisions, but not. Foundations and philosophy infogap decision theory. Apr 28, 20 i initiated and developed info gap decision theory for modeling and managing severe uncertainty.
Gday, this web site contains material that i have developedcollected, over the past few years, as part of my campaign to contain the spread of infogap decision theory in australia. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine tradeoffs and risks, this book discusses info gap explanations of robustsatisficing behavior. After all, info gap was developed to provide a methodology that is designed especially for decision making under severe uncertainty. Second, the combination of infogap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Infogap ig decision theory is a method for prioritizing alternatives and making choices and decisions under deep uncertainty. In this talk we discuss theorems asserting that, under severe uncertainty, a robustsatisficing decision has a better probability of survival than a bestmodel outcomeoptimizing decision.
Infogap decision theory is a conceptual framework that can support these deliberations and that has substantive implications for the formulation, evaluation and selection of strategic goals and. Ms1108 this is a response to comments made by mark burgman on my criticism of info gap. By choosing optimal interestrate ratios among the credit risk categories one can simultaneously satisfy regulatory requirements on expected losses and an institutions aspirations on expected profits. Decision making under uncertainty theory and application. Info gap decision theory is a conceptual framework that can support these deliberations and that has substantive implications for the formulation, evaluation and selection of strategic goals and. This book is a product of applying info gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. The basic decision functions of the theory are the robustness function, which assesses the immunity to failure, and the opportunity function, which assesses the immunity to windfall. We consider uncertainty both in parameters and in the shape of.
Infogap theory has decision functions for defending against failure and for facilitating windfall. The section is just absurdly technical for a general reference work. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine tradeoffs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. The immunity functions are obtained in this chapter by combining three distinct elements. Igdt models the clustering of uncertain events in families of nested sets instead of assuming a probability structure, which only require the nominal estimate of uncertain parameters to be known before. I embarked on this mission at the end of 2006 in response to the growing number of senior scholarsanalysts around me who became involved in the promotion of this theory in. They might be operational alternatives design a system, choose a budget, decide to launch or not, etc. The attempt to model and manage epistemic uncertainty connects to a range of questions in epistemology. Info gap decision theory is based on quantifying these two aspects of uncertainty, and choosing an action which addresses one or the other or both of them simultaneously. Decisions under severe uncertainty, offers an innovative approach that works without any reliance on probabilities.
It is therefore puzzling, if not amazing, that both editions of the book on info gap decision theory are utterly oblivious to this important paradigm. Infogap theory is a method for analysis, planning, modeling, decision or design under uncertainty. Engineering analysis and design infogap decision theory. Infogap decision theory is a nonprobabilistic decision theory that seeks to optimize robustness to failure or opportuneness for windfall under severe uncertainty, in particular applying sensitivity analysis of the stability radius type to perturbations in the value of a. Infogap decision theory is a classic example of a voodoo decision theory. Examples illustrate theory and practical implications. Infogap decision theory is a nonprobabilistic decision theory that seeks to optimize robustness to failure or opportuneness for windfall under severe uncertainty, 1 2 in particular applying sensitivity analysis of the stability radius type 3 to perturbations in the value of a given estimate of the parameter of interest. The future may differ from the past, so our models may err in ways we cannot know.
Jun 16, 2014 the best example of a publication that ranks extremely high on this index is benhaims 2010 new book on info gap decision theory, namely info gap economics. The book is intended for use by a broad audience, including students, lecturers. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance. In this book we concentrate on the fairly new concept of informationgap uncertainty, whose differences from more classical approaches to. Ms1108 this is a response to comments made by mark burgman on my criticism of infogap. Relying on the severity of the failure, informationgap decision theory igdt is. This book can be used in advanced undergraduate and graduate courses on decision theory and risk analysis. Infogap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty. Instead of addressing the criticism directed at info gap decision theory, this book remains completely oblivious to it, and this despite the serious nature. These concepts interact with functions of value judgments, gambling and risktaking, value of information, assimilation of data, and coherent uncertainties to form. It should be pointed out that info gap s robustness model is a simple instance of walds famous maximin model. Robust decision making, dynamic adaptive planning, dynamic adaptive policy pathways, info gap decision theory, and engineering options analysis. From theory to practice is divided into four parts. Robust optimal planning and operation of electrical energy systems.
Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. Part i presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty. First, infogap theory has found application in several new areas especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision making. Decision making under deep uncertainty springerlink. Decisions under severe uncertainty yakov benhaim download bok. This book is essential for reliability analysis and strategic planning, and includes quan. Israeli professor yakov benhaim, in his book info gap decision theory. Infogap decision theory is based on quantifying these two aspects of uncertainty, and choosing an action which addresses one or the other or both of them simultaneously. The book begins with a discussion of info gap models of uncertainty, which provides an innovative approach to the quantification of severe lack of information. Informationgap decision theory presents a distinctive new theory of decision making under severe uncertainty. Infogap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more. The term decision analyst covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Second, the combination of info gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application.
Yakov benhaim everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. Infogap decision theory is written for decision analysts. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine tradeoffs and risks, evaluate strategies for. In 2007 i advised userspromoters of infogap decision theory that not only is infogaps robustness model neither new nor radically different from classical decision theoretic models as repeatedly claimed in the infogap literature but, that it is in fact a simple instance of walds famous maximin model circa 1940. It is therefore puzzling, if not amazing, that both editions of the book on infogap decision theory are utterly oblivious to this important paradigm. Decision making under deep uncertainty from theory to. Info gap decision theory is written for decision analysts. After all, infogap was developed to provide a methodology that is designed especially for decision making under severe uncertainty.
Our scientific and technical understanding may be incomplete. First, info gap theory has found application in several new areas especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision making. Infogap decision theory s primary texts, namely the three books by benhaim 2001, 2006, 2010, present the theory as though it constitutes a major breakthrough in the quantification of uncertainty and in decision making under severe uncertainty. Informationgap decision theory is applied to construct optimal loan book portfolios that are robust against uncertainty. Infogap decision theory is a nonprobabilistic decision theory that seeks to optimize robustness to failure or opportuneness for windfall under severe uncertainty, in particular applying sensitivity analysis of the stability radius type to perturbations in the value of a given estimate of the parameter of interest. Info gap decision theory presents a fresh approach to the ageold problem of deciding responsibly with deficient information.
Infogap theory is applied in engineering, biological conservation, economics, project management, climate change management, homeland security, medicine, and other areas. An info gap is the disparity between what is known and what needs to be known in order to make a wellfounded decision. Virtually all engineers involved in design of buildings, machines, processes, etc. Dec 29, 2011 info gap decision theory s primary texts, namely the three books by benhaim 2001, 2006, 2010, present the theory as though it constitutes a major breakthrough in the quantification of uncertainty and in decision making under severe uncertainty. Info gap decision theory by yakov benhaim book resume. Infogap decision theory is a nonprobabilistic decision theory that seeks to optimize robustness. I initiated and developed infogap decision theory for modeling and managing severe uncertainty.
Informationgap decision theory is applied to construct optimal loanbook portfolios that are robust against uncertainty. It is also of interest to practicing decision analysts and to researchers in. An infogap is the disparity between what is known and what needs to be known in order to make a wellfounded decision. Decisions under severe uncertainty, 2nd edition, academic press, london, isbn 0123735521. Not only that these claims are not corroborated, the fact of the matter is that the central model deployed by. Infogap decision theory by yakov benhaim overdrive. Infogap decision theory by yakov benhaim book resume. Info gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more. Robust decision making, dynamic adaptive planning, dynamic adaptive policy pathways, infogap decision theory, and engineering options analysis. Making decisions under extreme uncertainty urbanh2oplanner. Info gap ig is a nonprobabilistic decision theory for prioritizing alternatives and making choices and decisions under deep uncertainty benhaim 2006, 2010. These theorems are based on nonprobabilistic infogap decision theory, which provides a. Relevant examples and practical concepts for daily decision making in all fields of occupation and specialization.
Infogap decision theory presents a fresh approach to the ageold problem of deciding responsibly with deficient information. This info gap model is a nonprobabilistic method for the problem considering severe uncertainties using the info gap decision theory igdt. In other words, it concentrates on expounding why the use and promotion of infogap decision theory is bad for science in general and for the science of decision making in particular. He describes the fundamental difference between classical statistical methods and his analytical techniques.
This book is a product of applying infogap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. The main goal of this campaign is to contain its spread in australia the land of the black swan. Decisions under severe uncertainty, 2nd edition, academic press, london. Apr 09, 2019 decision making under deep uncertainty. Infogap theory is a method for modeling and managing severe uncertainty and for prioritizing the options facing a decision maker. The dilemmas of wonderland decisions in the age of innovation yakov benhaim. Info gap theory is applied in engineering, biological conservation, economics, project management, climate change management, homeland security, medicine, and other areas. Info gap theory is a method for modeling and managing severe uncertainty and for prioritizing the options facing a decision maker. Decision theory or the theory of choice not to be confused with choice theory is the study of an agents choices. Since most users and promoters of infogap decision theory in australia and elsewhere are academics, this campaign is very much academic in nature.
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